2008年3月24日星期一

摩根大通大幅調升收購貝爾斯登

有報道指摩根大通大幅調升收購貝爾斯登,報道指收購價由2美元升至10美元,但此舉必須由聯邦儲備局批准才可,假如成事,股市必定受支持。

2008年3月20日星期四

Visa

the biggest IPO in U.S. history, Visa Inc. shares soared 28 percent in their stock market debut Wednesday as investors bet an accelerating shift to electronic payments will enrich the world's largest processor of credit and debit cards.
After being priced above expectations at $44 per share in an initial public offering that raised nearly $18 billion, Visa shares finished at $56.50 on the New York Stock Exchange Wednesday. The run-up gives the San Francisco-based company a market value of about $45 billion.
"This is an exciting and historic day for Visa," said Chairman Joseph Saunders, who received a $10.2 million bonus last year for laying the IPO groundwork.
Investors believe Visa is in a lucrative position as more people rely on its electronic network to make payments instead of using cash and checks. The company is expected to milk the phenomenon to become an even bigger cash cow than it already is.
Visa generated $5.2 billion in annual revenue last year as it handled more than more than 44 billion transactions totaling more than $3.2 trillion. The volume puts Visa far ahead of its main rival MasterCard Inc., whose own shares have more than quintupled from their May 2006 IPO price of $39.
Making Visa even more alluring to investors, the company is well-insulated from the credit problems that have scarred many of the lenders that issue the cards bearing its brand.
Unlike those lenders, Visa doesn't carry any consumer debt on its books. It depends on transaction fees, which have been steadily rising for years, including the past two U.S. recessions in 1991 and 2001.
Since the last recession, Visa has enticed consumers to use its credit and debit cards more frequently to pay for staples like groceries, gas and even utility bills. Visa estimates about 42 percent of its transactions fall into this "nondiscretionary" category, up from 27 percent in 2000.
"Visa enjoys one of the widest economic moats that a company can desire," Morningstar analyst Michael Kon wrote in a Wednesday research note.
Reflecting management's confidence, Visa anticipates annual earnings growth of at least 20 percent for at least the next two years. The company got off to a fast start in its fiscal first quarter ending in December with a $424 million profit, up 70 percent from the previous year.
Visa overcame turbulent market conditions to shatter the previous U.S. record IPO of $10.6 billion raised by AT&T Wireless eight years ago.
"To sell 400 million shares at a time like this is Herculean," said David Menlow, president of IPOfinancial.com
Investment bankers could still exercise an option to buy another 40.6 million Visa shares during the next 30 days. If that happens, Visa's IPO will end up raising $19.7 billion before expenses.
Visa has earmarked nearly $12 billion of the IPO proceeds to buy back shares from the banks that helped build up its network over the past 50 years. The biggest chunk, about $1.36 billion, will be paid to its largest customer and shareholder, JPMorgan Chase & Co., according to an updated breakdown filed late Wednesday.
Other major banks cashing in on Visa's IPO include: Bank of America Corp., National City Corp., Citigroup Inc., U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo & Co.
The windfall comes a propitious time, given the banking industry's wobbly condition as billions of losses pile up from the housing market's worst downturn since the 1930s.
Another $3 billion from the IPO is being deposited into an escrow account to cover potential liabilities in lawsuits alleging Visa conspired to stifle competition and fix prices.
Those legal problems represent one of the biggest risks to owning Visa stock, although the company's management maintains the escrow account and contingency measures should adequately protect investors. Visa paid more than $2 billion late last year to resolve a suit with American Express Co., but a similar case brought by Discover Financial Services LLC is scheduled for a Sept. 9 trial in New York.
Visa's dependence on only a handful of banks that issue most of its cards poses another possible downside, said Aite Group analyst Gwenn Bezard. The company's five largest customers accounted for $1.2 billion, or 23 percent, of its revenue last year.
Big card issuers like JPMorgan already get special discounts and the pricing pressure on Visa could intensify if more industry mergers further decrease the number of banks using its processing network, Bezard said. That might crimp Visa's profits.
For now, Visa is planning to trim about $300 million in expenses during the next two years to boost its operating profit margin from 37 percent.
Menlow and other analysts don't view Visa's blockbuster IPO as a sign that jittery investors have suddenly become more interested in taking chances on companies going public for the first time.
"This is more like an oasis in the desert," Menlow said.
The arid conditions have produced just 22 IPOs far this year, down from 47 at the same juncture in 2007.

2008年3月18日星期二

再買貨:korea fund , global financial fund,citigroup

再買global financial fund and korea fund,原本想買china fund,但市況不好,因中國A market看唔透,所以只買korea fund for long term. 原本想明天存款買美國Visa ,但美國開市見美國銀行股大反彈,所以在約市價us$20即買Citigroup for long term.

2008年3月14日星期五

分散投資

早前有friend話我唔應分散全球去投資,話集中中國就得.今日問佢話做月供股票,心理壓力唔大.今日有機構調查千多個香港市民,大多有投資,9成投資集中中港股票,話分散risk不足,應放眼全球,此點我好同意.

中國鐵建股份有限公司 (1186.HK)

得一lot 500股今天味破ipo price.

2008年3月13日星期四

今日全球股市下跌

今日全球股市大跌, 恆生指數全日收市跌1,121.12點,本人主力的月供基金計畫今日入市

2008年3月12日星期三

美國政府買入次按債券

美國政府買入次按債券,其實即是變另消失左的次按債券market,再次活躍,另美國banker 有套現機會,改善banker的liquity.

2008年3月8日星期六

沙地阿拉伯、阿聯酋及另外四個中東國家或會於2010年統一貨幣

沙地阿拉伯、阿聯酋及另外四個中東國家或會於2010年統一貨幣後,成立聯合交易所。分析員估計新的交易所會類似歐洲的Euronext,國內的交易所則不會取消。中東只花3年就可統一貨幣,比歐洲有效率得多 o

2008年3月6日星期四

越南市場

  1. 去年興過越南concept,各基金公司紛紛推出越南基金,但好景不常,越南股市兄由1200下跌到600點o 本星期三和四付每日分別下跌4%停板,到星期五才反彈4.75%o 同 financial consultant得知越南通漲嚴重達15%,大量海外直接投資,政府巳停print 錢紙,外資無法經銀行脫換越南盾出糧,只好用美金出糧,現在各基金擔心越南會像馬來西亞97年一樣用外匯管制o現在我越南投資都係loss,真要守下o

2008年3月5日星期三

港交所下月每手拆細

港交所下月每手拆細 港交所決定,4月7日開始,將港交所(0388)每手股數由500股拆細至100股。
行政總裁周文耀表示,降低每手股份的入場費,有助吸引更多投資者及擴大股東基礎。

2008年3月4日星期二

招銀考慮入股VISA

見3手機新聞話招銀考慮入股VISA,我認為招銀入股VISA,當分散投資目的o就算入股VISA後,相信股分比例都佔很低o對招銀走出去唔會有很大幫助o

基金投資詞彙解釋6-均衡基金 (Balanced Fund)

投資於股票、債券及 / 或貨幣市場工具,旨在提供資本增長和入息,並達致資本保值的基金。

2008年3月2日星期日

國內最大塑料購物袋生產企業解散

國內最大塑料購物袋生產企業解散 (星島) 03月 02日 星期日 11:42AM
國內最大的塑料購物袋生產企業漯河華強塑膠有限公司日前宣布解散,並宣布退出塑料袋制造行業。 漯河華強塑膠有限公司是廣州南強塑膠公司,九八年在河南省漯河市投資的全資子公司,是我國最大的塑料購物袋生產企業。它生產的塑料購物袋,約佔全國六成的市場份額。 國務院辦公廳下發的《關於限制生產銷售使用塑料購物袋的通知》中規定,從今年六月一日起,在全國範圍內禁止生產、銷售、使用厚度小於0.025毫米的塑料購物袋。根據這項規定,漯河華強塑膠有限公司約九成的產品,都在禁止之列。 漯河華強塑膠有限公司負責人王紅兵表示,公司管理人員和職工都已解散,目前僅留下清算組和保安隊伍。同是廣州南強塑膠公司全資子公司的遂平華強塑膠有限公司,也于近日宣布停產。

個人認為全國範圍內禁止生產、銷售、使用厚度小於0.025毫米的塑料購物袋,如果目的係為green protection,可以有反後果,廠商可生產大於0.025毫米的塑料購物袋o到時會造成更大浪費o

人民幣和新勞動法影響廠商生存空間

剛見以下報導:
福田預告蝕錢 裁員3000 生產線遷離粵 原廠房大減值


3月 1日 星期六 05:05 更新
【明報專訊】廠商慨嘆廣東省經營環境日子差已經一段日子,但一向以為對中小企的影響較大,豈料連紡織股市值排名第二大的福田實業(0420)也受到衝擊,更發出盈利預警,表示截至2月底及8月底止半年和全年業績均會錄得虧損,後者主要由於東莞福安的廠房產能大減所致的資產減值,但未有透露具體金額。公司發言人表示,有關的生產設施將遷至年中投產的江蘇鹽城市廠房,東莞方面需要裁減約3000多人,相信搬廠後有助節省經營成本。

發言人又表示,福田實業昨日宣布作資產減值的福安廠房原有工人約5000名,主要從事染布及染紗,搬遷後將保留染紗的部分及千多名員工。
執行董事嚴震銘已於春節前夕會見記者時,曾表示將於今年第三季起,將東莞的生產線陸續遷往江蘇,而最終將會完全撤離廣東省,而在搬遷的過程中難免令成本上漲。
「減值減到蝕」罕見
雖然過往也有公司因關閉廠房需要作資產減值,但鮮有出現「減值減到蝕」的情,例如同樣經營紡織業的永嘉國際,去年以效率不佳為理由,關閉旗下菲律賓廠房,但在業績公告中毋須個別披露有關損失,可見影響有限。有分析員指出,在部分生產線遷往江蔭廠房前,福安廠房原為福田實業旗下最大的廠房,故資產價較大,佔集團總產能比例又高,推高是次減值金額。
根據其07年年報,持有該廠房的東莞福安紡織印染有限公司總股本達6億元,福田實業佔其中51%。該公司發言人稱,連同東莞市另一廠房(沙田麗海紡織印染有限公司),兩者過往共佔福田實業約總產能逾三分之一。
生產成本漲 廠商陷困境
除資產減值影響全年業績外,公告中也表示中期業績受到人民幣升值及工資上漲等經營成本的壓力而錄得虧損(見表)。
自去年起,中央為推動企業升級轉型,廠商已多番表示勞工成本、人民幣升值等因素令他們陷入困境,香港工業總會更多番表示春節過後可能有逾萬間廠房結業、收縮或遷離廣東省。不過,紡織業聯會副主席林宣武認為,春節過後,至今很多工仍未完全復工,因只有約七成工人回到廣東省上班,他認為遷往長三角未必能節省成本,「但由於當地較多本地工人,勞動力供應相對較穩定。」
(明報記者何珮欣報道)

High risk high return?

好多人話High risk high return.但我認為high risk吾等於一等有high return.